![]() ![]() For example, the CCES will release updated data after validating the votes for respondents in an effort to gain greater accuracy. And some of the study data remain preliminary. Any estimate of a population has some margin of error. Moreover, voters may remember a previous winner better than a loser, and thus some people who voted for the prior loser may not remember if they voted, while others will misremember voting for the winner.Īnother consideration is sample error - always a challenge. While four years doesn’t seem like a very long time, one Dutch study found that the probability of someone consistently recalling their vote fell by about six percentage points over 3.5 years. Bias toward current political preferences can affect responses, as can simple forgetfulness - as much as it may surprise hardcore politicos, many Americans don’t necessarily remember their voter information with precision. Academic research has found that a number of different factors can explain these discrepancies. Voters do not always accurately recall the past. However, there’s an important caveat: self-reported past voting behavior has limited value. Together, these three surveys allow us to roughly estimate the number of Obama 2012-Trump 2016 voters. In addition to these studies, the University of Virginia Center for Politics recently partnered with Public Opinion Strategies to survey the attitudes of Trump voters, and as a part of that poll, respondents were asked about their prior voting history. Both asked respondents about their 2016 vote but also inquired whether or not they voted in 2012 and for whom they voted. While exit polls are imperfect, it at least would have served as another data point.Īt present, two regular national election studies have released 2016 data: the American National Election Study and the Cooperative Congressional Election Study. Unfortunately, the 2016 exit poll did not ask respondents about their 2012 vote, having last done so in 2008. We looked at three sources to try to gauge the raw number of voters who backed Obama in 2012 but then voted for Trump in 2016. Presidential Elections and Daily Kos Elections for Alaska’s state senate districts map shape files from the U.S. Sources: Election data from Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Note: Alaska’s results are displayed by state senate districts. Map 1: Change in Republican margin by county or county-equivalent, 2016 versus 2012 But how many total voters really switched from Obama to Trump in 2016? Different data sources tell a different story, but the answer is certainly in the millions. Because many of these areas congregated in swing states within the Rust Belt and Midwest, they played a pivotal role in Trump’s victory, as shown by the movement toward the GOP in Map 1 below. In the immediate aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many observers understandably focused on the numerous places that swung from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. ![]()
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